June 18, 2008 - 12:55pm
GOP may focus on state Senate districts 2, 4, 12, 18
By Dante ScalaIs there a silver lining to losing six seats and the majority in the state Senate? New Hampshire Republicans hope so. It's true that they have to defend fewer seats, which might leave more money to spend on offense. It's also arguable that after the shellacking they took in 2006, only the strongest GOP senators remain.
And finally, it's true that the more seats you have to defend, the more likely it is that the ball may take some unexpected bounces. All this gives the Republicans some hope if (and it's a big if) the electoral winds stop blowing in their faces this fall.
For instance, we doubt that Ray Buckley's plans to expand the Democratic majority (now 14-10) included defending District 12, the first seat on our watch list. Now, instead of well-funded Dave Gottesman defending his seat, Buckley has to think about how to retain a swing district with political newcomer Peggy Gilmour. We're not saying Gilmour cannot beat former state Rep. Paul LaFlamme, but we do think it will take a lot of work, and money that otherwise would be spent against Republican incumbents. (Of course, the Democrats are widely expected to have money to burn.) George Bush won 49 percent of the vote here in 2004; Craig Benson carried it with 51.5 percent.
The six freshman Democratic senators all face challenges of varying severity, depending on two main factors: the demographics of the district and the electoral experience of the challenger.
With that in mind, Deborah Reynolds in District 2 and Betsi DeVries in District 18 may face the most difficult fights for re-election.
Reynolds, who holds the Grafton County seat, will have to defend it against one of two state representatives, Bill Tobin or Vernon Dingman. Back in 2004, the district had a slight Republican tilt; Bush won 51 percent of the vote here, Benson 52 percent. That said, Grafton County, like Carroll County, ain't what it used to be for the Grand Old Party.
Nothing says Senate smackdown like District 18, which comprises southern Manchester as well as the town of Litchfield. DeVries will defend her seat against Manchester school board member Doug Kruse. Four years ago, Bush carried the 18th with 53 percent, Benson with 54 percent.
By the numbers, District 4 in Belknap County should be a prime target for Republicans. It's the most GOP-friendly district Democrats picked up two years ago (Bush and Benson both carried it in 2004 with roughly 55 percent). Kathy Sgambati put on an awfully impressive performance two years ago, though, and so it's wait-and-see for now. Greg Knytych, a freshman city councilor from Laconia, plans to make the election all about taxes and spending. Let's see if he has the money to get out his message, and then let's see if voters are paying attention to increasing fiscal woes in the state budget.
More tomorrow ...
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District 4
I agree that district 4 would be a prime target this year. If people remember it was an expensive republican primary between Boyce and Fitzgerald in 2006.
I think that another driving factor is that there will no longer be straight ticket voting, and that the last two years with the currrent Dem majority in NH just proves that they will spend like crazy because its not their money. Lets not forget that they watered down policy to favor their lobbyist friends, and forced more policy and regulations upon NH residents. Oh, and it doesn't hurt to point out that district 4 is part of Shea Porters district 1.
Getting annoying
I guess an old dog can't learn new tricks.
Dante, the Republicans have nobodies running in 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 15, 20, 21 and 24. They simply are not able to mount a serious challenge. None of those districts can even be considered a toss up.
Adding on the by far superior candidate and organization of 10, 18, and 23. Democrats start with 13, Dante.
And Democrats have superb candidates in 1, 3, 8, 11, 12, 16, - with a chance of gaining from two to all six. And the Democratic candidates in 9, 14 and 19 are going to very strong efforts - each of them have a chance at an upset.
So, you can keep typing over and over that the Republicans have a chance but it just ain't so.
Oh Come on...
Democratic Dawg cannot possibly believe the crap he comes up with.
First of all, District 13 is a toss-up, Sandra Ziehm is the former Chair of the city GOP and a current School Board member. She is very well known from her real estate business and has a 50/50 shot at flipping that seat. Remember, Hogan got a pretty good number in 06 against Foster.
I laughed at your remark that District 14 is somehow competitive and that there is going to be a strong effort behind Sandy Amlaw. Are you nuts? Probably not as nuts as your candidate in that district, she is a certified lunatic. I laughed pretty hard when I read that she was running, talk about scraping bottom (almost as bad as the candidates you put up against Downing and Barnes).
You fail to see that the race between DeVries and Kruse is going to be very close and could go either way. Betsi has not been tested, she beat Martel in an election that Mickey Mouse could have won.
Thanks
Thanks for reminding me of the juvenile style of attacks and amature operators in the NH Republican party.
Keep thinking and posting whatever you want "Any", we will see who is right at 9 PM on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
#4
Dem Dawg, just because Mr. Buckley handpicked NH insider candidates I doubt it will resonate in local elections. I live in the Lakes Region (district 4) are people ARE ticked off with the NH leadership. Whether it be the substantial budget increase or social issues, expect a large lakes region turnout to come out against the state dems and Shea Porter. I agree with Dante that district 4 should be the GOPs first target.
District 6
Don't forget District 6. It has traditionally been held by a Republican. In addition, it has almost always been occupied by a Rochester resident. Jackie Cilley, a Barrington resident, slipped in with the Democratic tsunami and because the GOP was disorganized after it's candidate, Dick Green, pulled out after the filing period had closed. True, the GOP is running an unknown, but Cilley was an unknown 2 years ago.
Where are these mobs?
To believe you two, one would conclude that the state has mobs of voters marching around with pitchforks and torches screaming for the heads of Democrats.
There is not one shred of evidence that you can provide to back up your fantasy.
As Chairman Buckley noted in yesterday's Portsmouth Herald, despite the moans and groans of Republican party operatives about the record of Governor Lynch and the Democratic majorities, Governor Lynch's popularity is sky high. And no serious candidate stepped forward to run against him.
My upset pick is Lee Quandt
My upset pick is Lee Quandt beating that despicable, carpet-bagging, self-aggrandizing, low-life ambulance-chaser hassan in Exeter.
GOP takes back Senate
Straight ticket voting swept in all sorts of who-dats into the Senate and the House last time around. Without that, voters will have to make a point of voting for each individual candidate and all the GOP has to do is hammer home: 17.5% budget increase, paying the mortgage with a credit card, and debt will lead to broad based tax. The NH Dems hope that the voters will be blinded by national issues yet again. Now that real damage has been done to the state, and it's taxpayers (burying us in debt) the case can be made that it's time to focus on NH.
Kruse to Victory? Don't Laugh he could win...
In the landslide of 2006 DeVries won by about the same percentage as Sgambati and Reynolds, even though she is in much more favorable district to a Democrat. Dave Gelinas barley lost in 2004 despite the fact that Benson and Bush did well in district 18. Bush and Benson did much, much better than Martel did. The point is, there is strong evidence that DeVries is a very weak candidate and if 2006 was normal year she never would have made it to the Senate.
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