Curb your enthusiasm, part 1

A new wrinkle in the University of New Hampshire Survey Center's Granite State Poll is a measurement of the certainty of voter choices. David Moore, a senior fellow with the Carsey Institute at UNH, offers an explanation worth reading here.

Barack Obama's advantage in voter enthusiasm has been documented by recent polling. Of course, we've been down this road before with the U.S. senator from Illinois. In the days before the New Hampshire primary, lots of observers (including this one) thought enthusiasm was on Obama's side after his win in Iowa. But voter volatility undercut so-called "momentum" in the five days between the caucus and the first-in-the-nation primary, and Hillary Clinton emerged the surprise winner that Tuesday night in January.

So far, according to the survey center's latest, Obama enjoys an edge among "definitely decided" voters, though not an overwhelming one, over John McCain.

Six out of 10 Obama voters say they have definitely decided, slightly better than the 53 percent of McCain voters. Statewide, 51 percent say they have definitely decided.

This edge is duplicated when we look at voters by party and ideology:

• Among Democrats, 58 percent say they have definitely decided, compared to 50 percent of Republicans (and just 32 percent of independents).
• Two-thirds of liberals say they have definitely made up their minds, compared to 56 percent of conservatives (and just 39 percent of moderates).

Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.