Curb your enthusiasm, part 2

Continuing our look at voter volatility, Ari Richter of the Concord Monitor has a thoughtful post on the U.S. Senate race between John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen, using the latest University of New Hampshire Survey Center data. Only one of five voters surveyed say they have definitely made a choice in this race -- a far cry from the race for president, in which half of voters say they have definitely decided.

In our last entry, we noted the slight edge for Barack Obama among the “definitely decideds.” Democrats are more likely than Republicans to have made up their minds on the presidential race, and liberals more likely than conservatives. 

That edge disappears in the Sununu-Shaheen race. Equal percentages of Republicans and Democrats (24 percent) say they have definitely decided. 

And even more strikingly, conservatives are slightly more likely to have made up their minds than liberals, by a margin of 29 percent to 23 percent.

Now we’re not suggesting that a lot of liberal votes are actually in play in this race. Obama-Sununu voters could qualify for endangered-species protection. But the numbers do underscore Shaheen’s occasionally thorny relationship with the liberal wing of her party. In her last run for governor in 2000, she faced a surprisingly strong challenge from income tax advocate Mark Fernald in the Democratic primary. (Two years later, Fernald was at the top of the ticket as his party’s gubernatorial candidate.)   Her husband Bill’s controversial comments about Obama last December  likely did not warm relations with party progressives. 

All this said, Jeanne Shaheen enjoys very positive feelings from liberals, according to the UNH poll. Seventy-seven percent of liberals give her a favorable rating, just 11 percent unfavorable, for a net + 66. That’s roughly tied with Sununu’s + 60 rating (71 percent favorable, 11 percent unfavorable) among conservatives.

What’s more worrisome for the Shaheen camp is the moderate bloc. Only one of six moderates say they have definitely made a choice in this race. Among this swing group, Shaheen’s numbers are good at + 34 (59 favorable, 25 unfavorable). What’s more interesting, though, is that Sununu’s numbers are not awful.  Currently he stands in positive territory (+ 12, or 50 percent favorable / 38 percent unfavorable). In fact, Sununu has enjoyed this slightly favorable rating among moderates all year (+ 14 in winter and + 4 in spring.). 

All of which raises some interesting questions for how the incumbent will make his pitch to moderates, a group that has not been very friendly to Republicans lately.  

EARLIER on PolitickerNH.com:

• Curb your enthusiasm, part 1 

Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.