Sununu, Shaheen benefit from lackluster U.S. Senate races

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jeanne ShaheenBoth Republican U.S. Sen. John Sununu and Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen expect to benefit from significant investment by their respective national senatorial campaign committees. Looking at the other U.S. Senate races, there are few other places for the national money to go.

According to Pollster.com, Sununu currently trails Shaheen by a 41 percent to 52 percent margin. An incumbent sitting under 45 percent in the polls might not impress as an especially wise investment. But compare Sununu to the alternatives:

On the one hand, a few Republican incumbents appear to be in fine shape after some initial worries, so the National Republican Senatorial Committee likely will not have to spend much.

ColemanFor instance ...

• In Minnesota, U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken, 50 percent to 43 percent In North Carolina, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole currently leads state Sen. Kay Hagan, 49 percent to 41 percent
• In Oregon, U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith leads state House Speaker Jeff Merkley 49 percent to 41.5 percent [link]
• The National Republican Senatorial Committee may wind up putting some money into Mississippi in the close race between Roger Wicker and former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove for Trent Lott's old seat.

StevensAnd on the other end, scandal-ridden Ted Stevens of Alaska is now trailing 39 percent to 53 percent, is likely too far gone to save.

Taking a look at a few of the open seats the NRSC is trying to defend, there seems little reason for optimism:

• In Virginia, former Gov. Mark Warner leads 59 percent to 34 percent
• In New Mexico, U.S. Rep. Tom Udall is cruising by a margin of 61-35.
• His cousin, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, leads 47 percent to 41 percent next door in Colorado.

Landrieu On the Democratic side, the only plausible NRSC target is U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu's seat in Louisiana. The incumbent leads by just one point in the closest Senate race on the board.

Of course, the dearth of competitive Senate races is also good news for Shaheen. Unless the Minnesota, North Carolina and Oregon races start to close, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will be spending a lot of money on even more television ads for voters in New Hampshire (and likely Boston) to watch. That's the benefit of being one of the few games in town.

Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.