August 27, 2008 - 3:53pm
Opinion

McCain picks up the pace in N.H.

A month ago, we compared John McCain's poll standing in New Hampshire to his poll numbers in other battleground states, to see whether the candidate is capitalizing on his long-term relationship with Granite State voters.

Earlier this summer, McCain was doing significantly worse here than nationwide. He stood at 43 percent nationally, but at just 37 percent in New Hampshire.

Since then, his national polling numbers have ticked up slightly to 44 percent, according to Pollster.com.

Last month, McCain ran ahead of his national numbers in Missouri (+ 2 percentage points), Nevada (+ 2), and Virginia (+ 1). A month later, he has maintained those advantages in Nevada (+ 1) and Virginia (+ 1), and now runs 4 points ahead of his national average in Missouri. (These state numbers also come from Pollster.com.)

McCain ran a point behind his national numbers in Colorado and Ohio, and still does today.

The biggest changes for McCain have been in those battleground states where he trailed his national numbers by four points or more last month. Most of these changes have been in McCain's favor, and the biggest change of all has been in, you guessed it, the Granite State:


State

July

August

Change

Iowa

-4

-2

+ 2

Pennsylvania

-4

-3

+ 1

Wisconsin

-4

-5

- 1

Michigan

-5

-3

+ 2

Oregon

-5

-2

+ 3

Washington

-5

-5

0

New Hampshire

-6

0

+ 6

Minnesota

-8

-3

+ 5


Perhaps some of this movement is simply regression to the mean: No one seriously expected New Hampshire to vote six points less Republican than the nation, not after voting just two points less Republican in 2004. (Ditto Minnesota, which voted three points less Republican in the last presidential election.)

Right now, though, McCain is doing slightly better here than one would expect a "generic Republican" to do, given the Granite State's current Partisan Voting Index of - 0.5 percent.

 

DANTE SCALA can be reached via email at dante.scala@unh.edu.
Related topics: John McCain

Comments

Still hasn't learned...


Despite this sentiment from every RINO I talk to, McCain has not learned to be a Republican nor how to garner support from NH Republicans.

He's throwing us under the bus and we might well do the same to him.. Well if he thinks he doesn't need us, phooey...that's gonna be his LOSS.

08/28/08 2:40 am

It's About Intensity


A poll -- no poll -- can accurately determine intensity this far before an election. When people are asked in August if they're going to vote November 4th, most registered voters will say, "sure." Just as I would say "sure" to the question of whether I expect to have lost 25 pounds by Christmas.

The intensity of commitment among Democrats -- and we WILL be united -- is incredible in 2008. A war has to be stopped, health care has to be more universal, minimum wages aren't cutting it -- we need livable wages -- and we can't put our heads in the sand about global warming. John McCain doesn't get it. Barack Obama does.

Democrats will do very well this November because of the intensity of our candidates, and those who support them. Voters will turn out for change. Whether we maintain that intensity in 2010 will depend on whether Democrats show they can deliver, and be Democrats, but for 2008, it's President Obama, Governor Lynch, Senator Shaheen, Congresspeople Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, 3 or 4 Democrat NH Governor's Councilors, 19 Democrat NH State Senators, and 262 Democrat NH House members. I'll bet a coffee AND muffin with Dante, and still lose those 25 pounds by Christmas.

08/28/08 9:32 am

"Get the Shovel!"


Wait Jim, you posted a while back that 43 to 37 Obama lead was indicative of the shift in NH. Now you are trying to spin it so the the newest poll doesn't mean anything? No offense, but I have heard better excuses from my kids.

FYI Jim, that wonderful increase in the minimum wage has statistically led to less hours for workers and more shutdowns of small mom and pop businesses. What is your definition of a livable wage?

Your predictions for November made me laugh so hard that my "fat free" milk shot through my nose. As John Stossel says, "Get the Shovel!"

08/28/08 10:49 am

JIM YOU DOLT


you keep talking about a minimum wage, but it's obvious you either never took or miserably failed high school economics... or you are a socialist:

Here, Thomas Sowell will school you on the minimum wage and why it's bad for poor people.

http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4472

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell110503.asp

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-11_15_05_TS.html

08/28/08 12:15 pm

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