Sununu, Shaheen and the wayback machine

Inspired by my colleague Wally Edge, I traveled back to the October 2002 University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll he mentioned today, and pulled out a crosstab.

Then I pulled the same crosstab from the most recent UNH poll this past July:

Here's the "before" and "after":

DEMOCRATS

In October 2002, Shaheen is winning this group, 84 percent to 9 percent.

July 2008? Shaheen, 83-11.

REPUBLICANS

In October 2002, Sununu leads among his base, 81 percent to 12 percent.

July 2008? Sununu, 77-14.

UNDECLAREDS

In October 2002, Shaheen has a 16-point lead, 51 percent to 35 percent.

Almost six years later? It's Shaheen again with a 14-point lead, 48-34.

To quote the famed psephologist Yogi Berra, this is like déjà vu all over again.

DANTE SCALA can be reached via email at dante.scala@unh.edu.

Comments

Telephones Again

posted by Jim Splaine

Except this time, we'll make sure Yogi Berra's déjà vu won't include the Republicans messing with telephones.

The other differences this year, of course, include the fact it's a Presidential election. In 2002, the biggest "attraction" was the US Senate race, especially since Craig Benson had spent enough money to sew up the Governorship early.

New Hampshire will go major for Barack Obama -- I think by a 7 percent margin -- and that will help turn out Democrats and Democrat-leaning undeclared voters. We still have a "straight ballot" in that the names of other Democrats are all listed under those of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, so I expect a lot of those people voting for Obama/Biden will check most of the rest of the list in the column. I'd give it to Shaheen by 4.

09/19/08 7:28 pm

laughing out loud

posted by haha

Keep dreaming, Splaine! You tax-spend-and-regulate Dems are going down!

09/20/08 1:20 pm

Jim Splaine is right

posted by stinky smelly

This election it won't be about phones....it will be about the spending cap. The democrats seem hell bent on making sure that the spending cap doesn't get on the ballot for fear that it will hurt Shaheen. The phone thing in 02 was all about a line to call for rides to the polls. This spending cap block is about denying entire cities the opportunity to vote on a very important issue.

And NH will go for McCain....by 3 points.

09/20/08 4:19 pm

Two things

posted by Disgusted Democrat

First, the post above is a clear example of why the NH Republicans are going to lose. Any party whose leaders put up with such disgusting attacks has lost all touch with reality. Truly disgusting.

Second, Dante fails to mention the dramatic change in voter registration over the past six years. Democrats have gained nearly 90,000 additional members, Undeclareds about 70,000 and Republicans only about 15,000. The net gain of over 70,000 for the Democrats have put them within 4,000 over passing the Republicans in voter registration in NH. For the first time.

09/20/08 6:23 pm

To clear up any confusion..

posted by Disgusted Democrat

There was a post, now removed, that used "locker room" language to attack Rep. Splaine and his sexual orientation. It was disgusting.

09/20/08 9:19 pm

Dear Disgusted Democrat

posted by Jim Splaine

Dear Disgusted Democrat -- thank you for making mention to that weird post. I read that post it before it was deleted by, I suppose, the PolitickerNH.com WEBMASTER, or whomever controls the site.

I've been treated that way, as many gays and lesbians have been, so frequently through the years -- including again just a few days ago in person on the campaign trail -- that I just shook my head when I saw it. It happens way more than it should, and some of us just get used to it, but shouldn't have to.

Words do hurt, and words like those cause gay bashing, cause hate crimes, cause young questionning gays and lesbians to commit suicide, and hurt American society in so many other ways. So, thank you for speaking out. - Jim

09/21/08 10:47 am

voter registration

posted by DJS

Disgusted Democrat anticipates my next post about voter registration numbers, which should be out tomorrow.

And I'm pleased to know the distinguished representative from Portsmouth as a savvy defender of the first-in-the nation primary, a thoughtful legislator, and last but not least, a proud UNH alumnus.

Next coffee on me at the MUB, Representative!

09/21/08 5:08 pm