NH 01 v. NH 02, revisited
By Dante ScalaAs promised, a follow-up to last weeks post on the state primary:
As Fergus Cullen rightly noted, the three towns of Rockingham County that sit in NH 02 (Atkinson, Salem, and Windham) represent a large number of votes. Indeed, these three towns cast more votes in the September primary than Coos County or Sullivan County.
What's more, those three towns are heavily Republican. Combined, they cast 3,450 GOP ballots and 1,755 Democratic ballots in the state primary.
On the other hand, NH 02 contains all of Merrimack County except Hooksett, which is heavily Republican (940 GOP ballots cast in the state primary, compared to 370 Democratic ballots).
Hillsborough County also is divided between the two congressional districts. Bedford, Goffstown, Manchester, and Merrimack vote in NH 01, but their combined ratio (9,896 R ballots, 6,967 D ballots) is roughly equal to the remainder of the county (11,550 R, 7,881 D ballots).
Once all the September primary ballots are allocated between the two districts, the ratio of Republican ballots to Democratic ballots in the September primary looked like this:
NH 01: 37,653 Republican ballots, 23,600 Democratic ballots. Ratio: 1.60 R/D
NH 02: 34,310 Republican ballots, 26,680 Democratic ballots. Ratio: 1.29 R/D.
Statewide ratio: 1.43 R/D.
The partisan differences between the two CDs still look significant.
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Thanks, Dante
I appreciate your doing the extra homework on this one. I think people overlook Atkinson, Salem, and Windham, and how they act as effective political counterweights to Sullivan and Coos. The fact that NH-2 is marginally more Democrat than NH-1 doesn't change the fact that both districts are competitive and winnable by both parties, which is why Hodes is more vulnerable than conventional wisdom suggests. I suspect the UNH poll out this week will show that, too.
Fergus Cullen
Chairman, NH GOP
Oh Fergus...
Obviously you can predict the outcome of the UNH Poll as being tilted more Republican because of two reasons: 1. It is terribly skewed toward the Republicans (somehow Andy thinks that, despite the two parties being tied, tens of thousands of more Republicans are going to vote in November. Complete nonsense). And 2. the margin of error for the congressional races in Andy's polls are always so steep that they are meaningless (just look at his final congressional numbers in 2006).
Question
Here is a question to anyone. How are the 2 districts drawn up? Was it all based on the census?
Predictable Liberals
Here's one prediction: Hyperpartisan Democrat activists who lack objectivity will criticize any poll showing a Republican winning or in competitive position as being biased, while standing by in silence when a poll is favorable to a Democrat. You can't have it both ways. PS: Show some courage and post using your name. Otherwise one might assume you are just a paid Democratic staffer.
Fergus Cullen
Chairman, NH GOP
Is that really you Fergus?
I doubt it very much because as a graduate of Gilford High, Yale and Harvard one would expect that his English skills were at a level that Fergus would know that it is not the Democrat party but the Democratic party.
Fergus would also know that only hyperpartisan fringe Republicans misname the Democratic Party. One has to assume it is one of the paid NHGOP staffers posting under his name.
NH 01, NH 02
There he goes again, Cullen whistling past the proverbial graveyard. In this case, the Republicans graveyard. Paul Hodes is an easy winner in District 2, because Ms. Horn is a lightweight with little of substance to say on the issues. In that she is remarkably reminiscent of Ms. Palin of Road to Nowhere fame. In the First District, it will be tighter. However, as soon as Jeb Bradley opens his mouth and becomes the pet poodle to McCain that he was to Bush, Carol Shea-Porter will hang both McCain and Bush around his neck and he won't be able to overcome the dead weight of both of those losers. Mr. Cullen knows that; he just can't bring himself to admit it publicly.
Amazing Democrat Turnout
Well, Dante -- no matter how you cut it or whatever analysis you put to it, I'm just amazed that in a primary election where there really were very few contests, some 50,280 Democrats voted; while in a primary election where there were major races, only some 71,963 Republicans voted.
And voting by absentee ballot were 2,581 Republicans and 2,522 Democrats -- showing some extra sense of interest on the part of the Democrats.
It's a good time to be a Democrat voter. And Fergus, considering how some of the Republican hierarchy are treating you, we'll welcome you into the Democratic Party effective Wednesday, November 5th. In fact, you can follow your conscience in the privacy of the voting booth on November 4th and fill in the ovals for several Democrats of your choice. No use accepting a lower quality of candidate just because of the party label!
Jim Splain, cleanup in aisle
Jim Splain, cleanup in aisle 3.
hmmm
I see no real value in projecting turnout/ result numbers from these ratios. While it may show that the Republican turnout is stronger in CD1 than it is in CD2 that is about the only conclusion that should be drawn.
Dems had no reason other than civic duty to show up at the polls on the 9th. The Republican ticket had competition for federal level seats and only managed to out poll Democratic turnout by .29 in CD2? I would not be celebrating that!
All should remember that back on Jan 8th, a contest much more analogous to the General, Democrats out voted Republicans 1:1.2
If members of the Republican Party want to take false comfort based on Primary ratios, please, be my guest.
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