What to expect from the next FEC numbers

The end of the second quarter FEC fundraising period is coming quickly and for many this will be the most important quarter of the year. Here are some key things to look for:

In the U.S. Senate race

It really doesn't matter much what John Sununu or Jeanne Shaheen put up for numbers as long as neither is embarrassingly low. Both candidates will have plenty of money to run an effective campaign. As long as Shaheen has been able to turn her momentum into cash, this race won't be very interesting as far as fundraising goes.

1st Congressional District

Carol Shea-Potter

This is probably not the most important quarter for her, the last one was. Everyone was looking closely at her last quarter to see if she could pull off a big number. Her results were not great, but not horrible; she fell somewhere in the middle. Shea-Porter raised $127k in the first quarter of 2008 and ended with $545k on hand. Not bad for a freshman, but lagging behind many in her class including her counterpart in the Second Congressional district. In May Shea-Porter joined the DCCC Frontline fundraising program which should help. Some speculate she joined the program because she was having problems with fundraising. Two things to watch will be how much she raised from instate vs. out of state and also how much she raised from Portsmouth. Why Portsmouth? Justin Nadeau will be hosting a fundraiser for 2nd CD Congressman Paul Hodes in Portsmouth later this week and it will be interesting to see if Hodes raises more money from Portsmouth at that even than Shea-Porter does for the quarter.

Jeb Bradley

The former Congressman finished the first quarter with $516k in the bank after raising $53k for the quarter. Don't expect much of a surprise here, Jeb will raise somewhere around 75-100k which will keep him on track to where he needs to be.

John Stephen

Stephen finished the first quarter with $257k in the bank after raising $103k. This race is fairly predictable. Stephen will probably be in the same ball park financially as Bradley, maybe slightly more. Don't expect either candidate to blow the other one out with their take for the past three months, if one does then that will be a major story. But we don't expect to see that.

2nd Congressional District

Paul Hodes

Hodes finished the 1st quarter with $831k in the bank and raised $255k. Hodes has proven to be a very effective fundraiser and the only question is will Hodes hit $1 million in the bank or not? He may also have a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage against his opponents.... combined.

Bob Clegg

This quarter may be more important for Clegg than any other candidate in the state. Clegg dropped $100k of his own money in during the first quarter, but only raised $20k and finished with $85k on hand. Clegg is seen by many as the only hope the Republicans have to win this seat, but the NRCC could not have been happy with his first quarter numbers. Clegg needs to put up a number north of $100k to even stay somewhat on the radar nationally. Yes, with the current field Clegg can win the primary even if he doesn't hit at least $100k, but that won't wake up enough money nationally for the general election.

Jennifer Horn

The big question here is does she have any money? The rumor out there is she is broke and if that is the case it will be hard for her to raise money going forward. Horn raised the most money in the first quarter for the CD2 Republicans with a take of $56k. She also has a large burn rate as she only had $30k left in the bank. The first quarter she hit the low hanging fruit, now it will need to be seen if she can expand much beyond that. She does have some powerhouse fundraisers in her quarter like the Petrones so she should still be able to bring in at least what she did in the first quarter.

Grant Bosse

Bosse is getting a lot of praise from those attending the candidate forums as maybe the most knowledgeable candidate in the race. But he still needs to raise money to get that message out there if he wants to be competitive. Bosse raised $12k in the first quarter and finished with $10k in the bank. Look to see if Bosse was able to turn any of the knowledge praise into green.

Jim Steiner

Steiner raised $3400 and finished the first quarter with a little over $10 in the bank. Steiner has not shown any indication he can raise money to be competitive and the question will be can he remain in the race.

Agree? Disagree? Post your comments or send me an email.